After a month of intense fighting triggered by US and Israeli strikes, Iran has emerged with what many analysts see as a major strategic advantage: a significantly strengthened hold over the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most vital energy chokepoints.
US and Israeli operations have eliminated senior Iranian figures and struck numerous targets inside the country. Yet Tehran has effectively weaponized its position along the narrow waterway linking the Persian Gulf to global shipping lanes. In March, the first complete month of the war, ship-tracking data from Bloomberg showed an average of just six vessels per day passing through the strait in either direction — a sharp drop from the normal daily flow of around 135 ships.
Of the limited oil tankers that have exited the strait, about 80 percent have been Iranian or linked to nations maintaining friendly ties with Tehran. Most vessels now follow routes approved by Iran, hugging its coastline rather than the Omani side, often after negotiations for safe passage. Malaysia and Thailand have secured bilateral arrangements to release tankers stranded in the gulf.
Iran moved quickly to assert dominance. Immediately after strikes began at the end of February, Tehran declared control over the chokepoint and warned that no American vessels would be permitted into the Persian Gulf. In early March, four ships without apparent US connections came under attack, resulting in at least three deaths. Such incidents have continued; on Tuesday, a fully loaded Kuwaiti crude tanker was struck off Dubai.
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The Islamic Republic has enacted legislation imposing a toll on transiting vessels while explicitly banning US and Israeli ships. Shipowners report being asked — often through intermediaries — to provide detailed cargo and crew information and, in some cases, to make payments. Some electronic interference affecting vessel-tracking systems has reportedly eased, potentially aiding navigation under the new arrangements.
This near-total restriction has functioned as a powerful asymmetric tool against two formidable military powers. It has directly influenced global energy prices and created financial pressure that has proved difficult for Washington to neutralize, despite proposals such as insurance backing or naval escorts. Bloomberg data indicate that more than 36 percent of the 110 ships leaving the gulf this month were sanctioned Iranian vessels or part of the so-called dark fleet serving Tehran. Among oil tankers, 21 of 35 that departed had direct Iranian links, with most others heading to friendly destinations.
Contrary to longstanding assumptions that Iran would avoid closing the strait to protect its own exports, Tehran’s oil shipments have continued — primarily to China — at roughly 1.8 million barrels per day, an increase of nearly 8 percent from the 2025 average, according to Kpler data as of March 26. Meanwhile, exports from Iraq fell more than 80 percent and Saudi Arabia’s dropped over 25 percent compared with prior-year levels.
Brent crude prices have surged close to 60 percent this month. The disruption has enhanced Iran’s diplomatic leverage with major oil importers including India, Turkey, Pakistan, and Thailand, several of which have sought Tehran’s clearance for their vessels. Washington has eased some sanctions on Iranian oil to help moderate prices, allowing India to receive its first Iranian LPG cargo in nearly eight years. Other Gulf producers are scrambling to reroute flows through alternative pathways.
Maritime insurers have designated almost the entire Middle East a war zone, driving war-risk premiums sharply higher — reaching 1.5 percent of vessel value in the gulf and up to 10 percent in the strait itself. Freight assessments for key routes have collapsed, prompting the Baltic Exchange to introduce new benchmarks. The head of the International Energy Agency has called on European countries to explore decoupling gas and power prices to mitigate broader effects.
While international maritime law under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea calls for unimpeded transit passage, neither Iran nor the United States has ratified the treaty. Sovereignty over the strait features among Tehran’s five conditions for any peace agreement. Shipping experts caution that even a ceasefire would not swiftly restore previous traffic levels, as traders, refiners, and insurers adjust to the changed reality.
Anoop Singh, global head of shipping research at Oil Brokerage Ltd, noted that Hormuz “remains a closed gate for oil tankers,” warning that a rapid return to normal flows is unlikely without sustained peace. Amanda Bjorn, head of claims at marine insurance broker Cambiaso Risso Asia, described the situation as a potential “slippery slope” if longstanding maritime norms are disregarded.
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