West Bengal’s political landscape may be on the cusp of a dramatic shift. Today’s Chanakya exit poll, released Thursday, projected the BJP winning 192 or more seats in the state assembly election, while the Trinamool Congress is estimated to secure 100-plus seats and others just 2.
If the numbers hold, it would mark the end of the TMC’s 15-year grip on the state. The halfway mark in the 294-seat assembly stands at 147. Today’s Chanakya’s projection is the fifth exit poll to give the BJP an advantage in West Bengal.
West Bengal voted across two phases on April 23 and April 29, with central forces deployed heavily at polling booths. Both phases recorded voter turnouts exceeding 90 per cent. The BJP characterised the high participation as a signal of “poriborton” or change after a decade and a half of TMC rule.
Most Polls Favour BJP, But Not All
The broader exit poll landscape largely reflects a BJP edge, though with varying margins. Matrize projected 146-161 seats for the BJP and 125-140 for the TMC. P-Marq offered one of the more bullish BJP forecasts at 150-175 seats, against 118-138 for the TMC. Chanakya Strategies predicted 150-160 seats for the BJP and 130-140 for the TMC, while Poll Diary estimated 142-171 seats for the saffron party and 99-127 for the ruling TMC.
Not all surveys pointed in the same direction. People’s Pulse projected a comfortable TMC victory with 177-187 seats, and Janmat Polls forecast an even stronger showing for the ruling party at 195-205 seats. JVC predicted the tightest contest, giving the BJP 138-159 seats against the TMC’s 131-152.
The 2021 assembly election offers a cautionary note. Most exit polls that year had forecast a close fight between the two parties. The final result proved decisively otherwise the TMC swept 215 seats while the BJP secured 77 and settled into the role of principal opposition.
Exit polls are based on voter surveys conducted after ballots are cast and aim to reflect public sentiment, though their projections do not always align with the final count. Votes will be counted on May 4.
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