New Delhi: India may be heading toward one of its most uncertain monsoon seasons in recent years as climate experts and weather agencies warn about the possible emergence of a strong El Nino event in 2026. According to reports by India Today and international forecasting agencies, changing ocean temperatures in the Pacific could significantly influence rainfall patterns across the country during the upcoming southwest monsoon season.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has projected below-normal monsoon rainfall this year, estimating precipitation at around 92 per cent of the long-period average. Experts believe the developing El Nino could weaken monsoon winds over the Indian subcontinent, leading to reduced rainfall in several northern, western and central states. Areas including Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan and parts of Madhya Pradesh are considered vulnerable to dry conditions and possible agricultural stress.
At the same time, weather experts have warned that Tamil Nadu and coastal Andhra Pradesh may witness above-normal rainfall during the Northeast Monsoon season. Chennai, in particular, has emerged as one of the cities facing elevated flood risks if the El Nino intensifies later this year. India Today reported that memories of the devastating 2015 Chennai floods have once again raised concerns among residents and authorities.
Climate scientists are also monitoring a powerful warm-water Kelvin wave in the Pacific Ocean, which is believed to be contributing to the formation of the El Nino system. Global weather agencies including NOAA and ECMWF have indicated that conditions are increasingly favourable for a strong event to develop by mid-2026.
According to Reuters, nearly 70 per cent of India’s annual rainfall depends on the monsoon, making the season critical for agriculture, food prices and the broader economy. Experts say updated forecasts expected later this month will offer a clearer picture of the scale and intensity of the developing weather pattern.
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