The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has indicated that the southwest monsoon is expected to arrive over Kerala around June 4.
In an official update on Tuesday, the IMD Kerala office stated, “Southwest Monsoon is likely to set in over Kerala around 4th June.” The weather agency further noted that atmospheric conditions remain favourable for the monsoon’s continued progress into additional parts of the southwest and southeast Arabian Sea, the Lakshadweep Islands, sections of Kerala and Tamil Nadu, as well as several regions across the Bay of Bengal.
This development comes close to the climatological normal onset date of June 1 for the monsoon over Kerala, which signals its official arrival on the Indian mainland. The rains typically first reach the Andaman and Nicobar Islands in the third week of May before progressing westward.
Meteorologists are monitoring the monsoon’s advance with particular attention this season. The IMD has projected below-normal rainfall for the country overall, estimating 90 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA). Experts have expressed concerns regarding the potential influence of the El Niño weather pattern, which is historically linked to subdued and erratic rainfall distribution across India.
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The southwest monsoon plays a pivotal role in India’s agricultural calendar and economic stability. The country receives approximately 75-80 per cent of its annual precipitation during the four-month monsoon period from June to September. These rains are essential for the timely sowing of kharif crops, including paddy, pulses, and oilseeds, which contribute more than half of the nation’s total foodgrain production.
A healthy monsoon directly supports farm output, helps moderate food inflation, and sustains rural livelihoods. Any significant deviation in rainfall patterns can have wide-ranging implications for the agrarian sector and the broader economy. As the monsoon edges closer to the mainland, farmers and policymakers alike await further updates on its intensity and distribution in the coming weeks.
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