Geneva: A new report released by the United Nations weather agency and the UK Met Office has projected that global temperatures are likely to remain close to record levels over the next five years. According to Reuters, the findings also indicate that Arctic regions will continue warming at a much faster pace than the rest of the world.
The report estimates that annual global mean near-surface temperatures between 2026 and 2030 could remain between 1.3 degrees Celsius and 1.9 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels recorded between 1850 and 1900.
Rising Temperatures Raise Climate Concerns
Speaking to Reuters, Melissa Seabrook, a research scientist at the UK Met Office, said there is clear scientific evidence showing that the climate is continuing to warm and that global temperatures are steadily increasing.
The report comes amid growing international concerns about climate change and the long-term impacts of rising temperatures. Under the 2015 Paris Agreement, countries agreed to work toward limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels in an effort to reduce the severity of climate-related disasters.
Chances of Crossing the 1.5°C Threshold Increase
The study stated that there is a very high probability that the global mean near-surface temperature will temporarily exceed the 1.5 degrees Celsius mark in at least one year between 2026 and 2030.
It also predicted that one of the upcoming years could become hotter than 2024, which currently holds the record as the warmest year ever recorded. According to the report, 2024 was the first year in which temperatures crossed 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
Melissa Seabrook clarified to Reuters that temporarily crossing the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold does not automatically mean the Paris Agreement has failed. She explained that the agreement is based on long-term temperature averages over two decades rather than a single year.
She further warned that the opportunity to keep global warming limited to 1.5 degrees Celsius is shrinking rapidly.
Arctic Expected to Warm Faster Than Global Average
The report highlighted that Arctic winter temperatures in the northern hemisphere are expected to rise at more than three-and-a-half times the global average during the next five years.
Temperatures in the Arctic could reach nearly 2.8 degrees Celsius above the 1991–2020 average levels. The study also warned of continued sea-ice melting in regions including the Barents Sea, Bering Sea and the Sea of Okhotsk during March over the coming years.
Researchers noted that rapid Arctic warming could disrupt weather systems and contribute to more extreme weather events, especially across northern regions.
Wetter Conditions and El Nino Forecast
The report also forecasts wetter winters across parts of the northern hemisphere in the coming years. Regions such as northern Europe, Alaska, Siberia and the Sahel are expected to witness above-average rainfall between May and September, while the Amazon region could face drier conditions.
Additionally, the study predicted the possibility of a strong El Niño event developing during winter this year and continuing into 2027. Reuters reported that such conditions could further increase global temperatures because of warming ocean waters in the Pacific.
El Nino is a recurring climate pattern linked to rising sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean and usually lasts between nine and 12 months.
The report also forecasts weather winters across parts of the northern hemisphere in the coming years. Regions such as northern Europe, Alaska, Siberia and Sahel are expected.
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