‘Shock Is Coming, Prepare For The Worst’: Uday Kotak Warns India Of Big Energy Price Hit From US-Iran War At Cii Summit 2026
Finance industry leader Uday Kotak has warned that India has yet to feel the full force of the Middle East energy crisis and that the impact, when it arrives, will be significant.
Speaking at the CII Annual Business Summit 2026 in Delhi, the Kotak Securities chairperson said the global order is shifting toward a “tribal” mindset amid the US-Israeli war on Iran, and that Indian companies need to think in terms of long-term national strength rather than short-term cycles.
“We have not seen the impact in the last two months of the Middle East war in terms of energy price transmission,” Kotak said. “It’s coming, and it’s coming big, and consumers have not felt the pressure at all. Oil companies had the ability to be the shock absorber, and it’s a large amount of money.”
‘Prepare for paranoia’
Kotak urged India to avoid complacency. “My view is we should prepare for paranoia before the event. We must prepare for the worst,” he said. With over 85 percent of India’s oil needs met through imports, he warned the economy remains exposed to global price shocks that can ripple into inflation, the rupee, and broader financial stability.
“Be ready for tough times, rather than waiting for the shock to hit us. The shock is coming. I don’t think you’re very far away from the shock unless the Iran war stops tomorrow morning and we have been hoping for it since February 28,” he said.
What the government said
Union Petroleum Minister Hardeep Singh Puri, also speaking at the summit, said oil marketing companies are currently absorbing losses of ₹1,000 crore every day to keep pump prices stable, as global crude benchmarks have surged from $65 to nearly $115 per barrel. Under-recoveries for the first quarter are projected at ₹1.98 lakh crore. Puri added that despite 70 to 75 days of global disruption, India has maintained uninterrupted energy supplies.
Kotak also called for stronger financial discipline at the government and corporate level, warning that businesses are too focused on short-term performance. “The ability to take a 3-5 year view is significantly required, and is missing,” he said, asking companies to shift focus away from stock price movements and quarterly incentives.
Government reassures on supplies
Following the fifth meeting of the Informal Group of Ministers chaired by Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, the government confirmed that India holds a comfortable buffer crude oil and natural gas stocks covering around 60 days of demand and LPG supplies providing roughly 45 days of rolling cover. Foreign exchange reserves stand at approximately $703 billion.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi has appealed to citizens for austerity, asking them to reduce fuel consumption, adopt work-from-home practices, and hold off on buying gold to ease the nation’s fiscal burden. He made the remarks while speaking in Gujarat and Hyderabad.
What the Opposition said
Senior Congress leader Jairam Ramesh interpreted the Prime Minister’s Hyderabad remarks as signalling tougher measures ahead. “A phase of stringent cost-cutting measures, including a hike in fuel prices, may be on the horizon, and an atmosphere is being created to make them more acceptable,” he said.
Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav questioned the timing of the government’s appeals, asking why economic strain has become a talking point only after recent elections in four states and a Union Territory. “During the elections, BJP leaders took thousands of chartered flights. Were those planes flying on water?” he said.