‘Nobody Thought They Were Going to Hit’: Trump Claims Iran’s Gulf Strikes Were a Surprise — But Experts Had Already Warned Him
US President Donald Trump said Iran’s retaliatory strikes on Gulf nations hosting American military bases caught Washington off guard, insisting that “nobody” could have foreseen the escalation. However, that claim sits uncomfortably alongside a documented trail of intelligence assessments and expert warnings that had already reached the White House before the attacks took place.
According to reports, classified intelligence briefings shared with the administration had identified multiple Gulf states including Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, and Kuwait as high-risk targets. While a regional strike was not considered a certainty, it featured prominently among the anticipated Iranian responses being tracked by US officials.
Beyond missile strikes, administration officials had also warned Trump that Tehran could attempt to blockade the Strait of Hormuz a move that analysts say could trigger a global economic crisis by choking off the world’s most critical oil transit route.
The warnings were not limited to classified channels. Prominent West Asia analysts and former US officials had been publicly raising alarms in the days leading up to the attacks. Nate Swanson, a 20-year State Department veteran and former member of Trump’s own Iran negotiating team, published a piece in Foreign Affairs four days before the strikes explicitly predicting an escalation. Swanson argued that Iran’s increasing sense of vulnerability would push it toward aggression rather than capitulation.
In his analysis, Swanson noted that Tehran believes the United States and Israel are working to systematically dismantle its ballistic missile program. Faced with what it perceives as a threat to the regime’s survival, Iran shifted toward a more aggressive deterrent posture to avoid what Swanson described as a “perpetual assault.”
Adding another layer to the story, reports indicate that a significant “brain drain” within the administration may have weakened its analytical readiness. Ilan Goldenberg of the Centre for a New American Security noted that Swanson was among several National Security Council staffers dismissed last year — reportedly following pressure from outside activists on White House personnel decisions.
‘Nobody Thought They Were Going to Hit’
Despite the documented warnings, Trump firmly maintained the narrative of a complete intelligence blind spot during a press interaction on Monday, March 16. When asked whether he had been briefed on potential risks to Gulf allies, the President was unequivocal in his denial.
“Nobody, nobody, no, no, no. The greatest experts, nobody thought they were going to hit,” Trump said, adding: “They weren’t supposed to go after all these other countries in the Middle East. Nobody expected that. We were shocked.”
Trump also sought to explain the surprise by characterising the targeted Gulf nations as largely “neutral” in their relationship with Iran, suggesting there was little logical basis to anticipate they would be drawn into the conflict.