New Delhi : The BJP-led NDA remains firmly positioned to retain power if Lok Sabha elections were held today, but its declining numbers suggest that its popularity may be losing some momentum, according to the latest India Today-CVoter Mood of the Nation survey. The 12th edition of the survey projects that the NDA would win 326 seats, down 26 from the 352 seats forecast in the previous survey released in January.
The INDIA bloc’s tally is unlikely to see any substantial gains as compared to the January MOTN survey. While the latest poll predicts 185 seats for the Congress-led alliance, the January 2026 survey projected 182 seats. It marks a major drop from the 234 seats the INDIA bloc won in 2024 – the closest the opposition came to challenging the NDA since 2014.
Another set of 91,795 interviews conducted over the last six months as part of CVoter’s regular tracking was also used to formulate the findings of the August 2026 MOTN. The August 2026 MOTN has predicted 261 seats for the BJP if elections are held today. Just six months ago, the survey projected 287 seats – comfortably above the 272 magic number.
Sustained student protests at Delhi’s Jantar Mantar in July eventually forced Dharmendra Pradhan to resign as Education Minister – a rare occurrence in the Modi era. As per the latest poll, the party is expected to win 106 seats – a sharp rise from the 80 seats forecast in the January edition. The forecast is higher than the 97 seats predicted in the August 2025 edition.
The NDA is likely to see a marginal dip (45.1%) from the January MOTN forecast (47%). It is the lowest since the August 2025 survey, which predicted a 46.7% vote share. The NDA got 44% of the votes in the 2024 polls. For the INDIA bloc, the latest survey predicts a 39.1% vote share, a negligible increase from the 39% forecast in the January MOTN poll.
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