MUMBAI: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has elevated Cyclone Shakti to severe cyclonic storm status, marking the inaugural post-monsoon disturbance in the Arabian Sea this season. As of Saturday evening, the storm churned with sustained winds of 100 kilometers per hour and stronger gusts, its eye positioned roughly 420 kilometers southwest of Dwarka in Gujarat.
Tracking data indicates the cyclone will steer west-southwestward into the northwest and adjacent west-central Arabian Sea by Sunday evening. From Monday morning onward—October 6—it is projected to curve east-northeast, gradually dissipating by October 8. At 11:30 p.m. IST on October 4, the system hovered near coordinates 21.3°N, 62.7°E, approximately 320 kilometers east-southeast of Oman’s Ras Al Hadd promontory, advancing at 15 kmph over the prior six hours.
Sea conditions along the Gujarat-north Maharashtra and Pakistan coasts are expected to remain rough to very rough through Sunday, prompting IMD advisories for heightened caution. Fishermen in north Maharashtra have been urged to avoid open waters until October 5 amid gusty conditions.
For Maharashtra’s coastal belt—encompassing Mumbai, Thane, Palghar, Raigad, Ratnagiri, and Sindhudurg—gales of 45-55 kmph, with bursts up to 65 kmph, are anticipated from October 3 through 7. Yet IMD scientist Sushma Nair underscored that the state faces no direct cyclonic peril, with forecasts limited to light to moderate showers in Mumbai and surrounding regions through the week.
Gujarat’s shoreline, including districts such as Dwarka, Jamnagar, Porbandar, Surat, Navsari, Valsad, Daman, and Dadra Nagar Haveli, could encounter isolated heavy downpours on October 8. IMD Ahmedabad’s Abhimanyu Chauhan noted the overall footprint on the state would be negligible, advising against alarm. “Cyclone Shakti will recurve on October 6 morning moving towards the east-northeast direction,” Chauhan said. “However, there is no need to panic as the impact over Gujarat will be minimal.”
An IMD official echoed this assessment, stating the system is primarily destined for Oman’s coastline, with any Indian repercussions confined to possible light drizzle in Gujarat’s fringes. Maharashtra, they added, should see negligible effects.
In preparation, the Maharashtra administration has mobilized district-level disaster response protocols, including contingency evacuation strategies, bans on maritime outings, and safeguards against intense precipitation.
Live dispatches from October 4 captured the unfolding scenario: At 10:23 p.m. IST, Chauhan reiterated the slim odds of disruption in Gujarat. By 10:47 p.m., satellite imagery confirmed the westward drift toward Oman. IMD projections at 10:49 p.m. foresaw a slowdown post-Monday, while 11:01 p.m. footage from Mumbai depicted intermittent drizzle under overcast skies, aligning with extended rain outlooks until October 8. Nair’s 11:07 p.m. bulletin reaffirmed the absence of cyclone risks, pinning the trajectory firmly seaward.
As monitoring persists, coastal communities are primed for vigilance, though experts project a muted domestic toll from this fleeting tempest.
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