The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has revised its seasonal monsoon forecast downward, predicting rainfall across the country to average 90% of the long period average (LPA), with a model error of ±4%. This marks a reduction from the 92% estimate issued in April. The LPA for the June-September period, calculated from 1971-2020 data, stands at 87 cm.
IMD has assigned a 60% probability to a deficient monsoon (below 90% of LPA), 24% to below normal (90-95%), 14% to normal (96-104%), and minimal chances for above-normal or excess rains. Ministry of Earth Sciences secretary M Ravichandran emphasized that the forecast incorporates both probability assessments and dynamic factors influencing total rainfall volume.
The update raises particular concerns for agriculture, as the monsoon core zone—covering much of India’s rain-fed farmland—is expected to receive below-normal rainfall at under 94% of LPA. Regional projections indicate normal rainfall over Northeast India (94-106% of LPA), but below-normal conditions in Central and South Peninsular India (below 94%) and Northwest India (below 92%). Most parts of the country are likely to see below-normal seasonal rainfall, with exceptions in select areas of Northwest and Northeast India, eastern South Peninsula, and isolated East India pockets.
IMD cautioned that such deficits could strain agriculture, water resources, hydropower, and ecosystems, heightening risks of drought and heat stress. Recommended measures include improved water management, conservation practices, agricultural contingency planning, and enhanced use of IMD’s drought monitoring and early warning systems.
For June specifically, the department now anticipates below-normal rainfall at under 92% of LPA, revising earlier expectations. Weak El Niño conditions are projected to emerge as early as June, with neutral ENSO transitioning toward El Niño over the equatorial Pacific. Neutral Indian Ocean Dipole conditions are expected to persist. El Niño is typically linked to weaker monsoons and hotter summers in India.
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Extended range forecasts indicate largely dry conditions over Kerala from May 28 to June 4, with slight improvement only between June 4 and 11. Onset over Kerala, normally around June 1, has been delayed due to a West Pacific typhoon diverting moisture and a cyclonic circulation near Lakshadweep. IMD has not yet declared onset, noting most current rainfall remains over the ocean. Advance to parts of the Arabian Sea and extreme Peninsular India is expected in the coming week.
Compounding the situation, IMD forecasts a hotter June with above-normal heatwave days across large parts of Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Punjab, Bihar, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, and Andhra Pradesh, plus isolated areas in Maharashtra, Telangana, Himachal Pradesh, and Tamil Nadu. Some regions may experience five to six heatwave days, two to three more than usual. IMD Director General M Mohapatra highlighted risks to public health, water supply, power demand, and infrastructure, urging preparedness for vulnerable populations.
The southwest monsoon remains vital for India’s economy, irrigating nearly half the net-sown area and replenishing reservoirs for drinking water, industry, and power. This year’s outlook gains added significance amid potential fertilizer supply issues linked to West Asia conflicts.
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