War in the Middle East is quietly squeezing India’s fertiliser supply chain, and the real test comes in about six weeks.
Shipping disruptions linked to the conflict have already choked routes through the Strait of Hormuz the chokepoint through which most of India’s fertiliser imports, and the raw materials to make them domestically, must pass. India is the world’s second-largest fertiliser consumer after China, and it depends heavily on imports, particularly from Gulf nations.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi has said the government is taking steps to ensure farmers aren’t affected. Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan told officials Wednesday to guarantee uninterrupted supply. Analysts say current stocks should hold but the clock is ticking.
The Numbers
India uses roughly 40 million tonnes of urea annually. As of March 19, government data showed about 6.2 million tonnes in stock. Fertiliser consumption peaks between June and September during the kharif (monsoon) season. Farmers in Punjab and Haryana India’s primary grain-producing states typically start buying urea in May.
For now, they’re not panicking. The buying season hasn’t started. But Manpreet Singh Gareval, who heads a farmer group affiliated with Punjab Agricultural University, put it plainly: “If the war prolongs, we don’t know how long this stock will last.”
Where It Gets Complicated
Urea needs natural gas to manufacture. India imports roughly 85% of its natural gas, mostly from Gulf countries. A government directive issued earlier this month capped gas supply to fertiliser plants at about 70% of their requirement. Industry sources two company officials who spoke to the Media without giving their names said some producers have already cut output as a result.
Meanwhile, global urea prices have risen sharply in recent weeks. Gas prices across Asia are up too.
Former agriculture secretary Siraj Hussain told the Media the government needs to start preparing now. He pointed out that farmers in many parts of India over-apply urea well beyond what crops actually need — which means a modest shortage in those areas may not hurt yields much. But regions where fertiliser use is already low are a different story. “Supply there must be secured,” he said, “because the crops in those areas are more vulnerable.”
Alberto Persona, Director of Fertiliser and Sustainability Analytics at S&P Global Energy, was more specific: “Up to four weeks of disruption can be managed through domestic production or imports from other regions. Beyond that, it gets concerning.”
The Bigger Risk Is the Next Season
Most analysts agree the immediate kharif crop is probably fine. It’s the rabi season after it and the one after that where the real exposure builds.
“The risk to the upcoming season’s crop is actually quite low,” Persona said, “but this tightness becomes increasingly important for the next season.”
Food prices add another wrinkle. Hussain noted that if global fertiliser prices keep rising, the government’s subsidy bill will climb since it sells urea to farmers at a fixed price regardless of what it costs to import or produce. The gap between those two numbers widens with every uptick in global prices.
Persona also flagged something worth sitting with: “The real issue with prices is that they’re not always governed by market fundamentals. Expectations play a big role.” In other words, food prices could move on fear before a single field goes without fertiliser.
Modi has spoken of diversifying import sources and boosting domestic production to reduce dependence on any one region. How quickly those shifts can be made and whether shipping routes normalise in time is the question nobody can answer right now.
If the war ends soon, supply chains could stabilise within weeks. If it doesn’t, the next planting season will look a lot less comfortable.
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