Ahmedabad: Gujarat is bracing for a fresh wave of monsoon rains starting today, with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasting light to moderate rainfall across the state for the next seven days. The active monsoon trough is expected to trigger widespread showers, particularly in South Gujarat, where heavy rainfall is likely. Authorities have issued a warning for fishermen to avoid venturing into the sea due to expected wind speeds of 30 to 40 kmph along the coast. From July 13, rainfall intensity may increase in Saurashtra.
Rainfall in 101 Districts Over the Past Day
In the 24 hours from 6 a.m. yesterday to 6 a.m. today, 101 districts across Gujarat recorded rainfall. Sabarkantha’s Talod saw the highest at 2 inches, followed by Kutch’s Mandvi with 1.5 inches. Ten other districts reported 1 inch of rain, while lighter showers were recorded elsewhere. On Friday evening, Ahmedabad and Patan also experienced rainfall, with over 61 districts in the state logging light to moderate showers.
Yellow Alert Issued for South Gujarat
The IMD has issued a yellow alert for Valsad, Navsari, Daman, and Dadra and Nagar Haveli, forecasting heavy rain in isolated areas today. A robust low-pressure system over West Bengal, Bihar, and Jharkhand, combined with a trough nearing Gujarat by July 12, is expected to intensify rainfall in Central and East Gujarat, including Ahmedabad, from July 12 to 15.
Atmospheric Instability to Drive Rainfall
The cyclonic circulation system, coupled with the trough, will reach the Madhya Pradesh-Gujarat border by July 12, creating atmospheric instability. This is likely to bring light to moderate rain across various parts of Gujarat, with moderate showers expected in Ahmedabad, East-Central Gujarat, South Gujarat, and Saurashtra. The intensity of the rainfall will depend on how close the trough moves to Gujarat.
June Rainfall Breaks 44-Year Record
Gujarat typically requires 110.8 mm (4.43 inches) of rainfall in June but received 288.7 mm (11.55 inches) this year, surpassing the requirement by 161%. This marks the second-highest June rainfall in 125 years, breaking a 44-year record. The highest June rainfall was 298.3 mm (11.93 inches) in 1980. The monsoon was active for 16 days in June this year, compared to the usual nine days. South Gujarat saw the most rain days at 19, while Kutch recorded the fewest at eight. A day with 2.5 mm or more rainfall is counted as a rain day.
Regional Rainfall in June
- Kutch: Against a requirement of 50.1 mm (2 inches), 142.3 mm (5.69 inches) was recorded, 184% above normal.
- North Gujarat: Against 80.2 mm (3.21 inches), 178 mm (7.12 inches) was recorded, 122% above normal.
- Central-East Gujarat: Against 113 mm (4.52 inches), 278.9 mm (11.16 inches) was recorded, 147% above normal.
- Saurashtra: Against 127.7 mm (5.12 inches), 245.1 mm (9.8 inches) was recorded.
- South Gujarat: Against 253.4 mm, 532.5 mm (21.3 inches) was recorded.
July Forecast: Above-Normal Rainfall Expected
The IMD predicts above-normal rainfall across India in July, with Gujarat likely to see more than its usual share. Most regions of the state are expected to experience good rainfall.
Regional Forecast for July 10–17
- Kutch: Rainfall intensity may decrease slightly.
- North Gujarat: Aravalli may see heavier rain, while Patan and Banaskantha’s western areas could experience lighter showers.
- Central-East Gujarat: Mahisagar, Dahod, and Panchmahal may see stronger rainfall, while Ahmedabad, Kheda, and Anand are likely to get normal showers.
- Saurashtra: Above-normal rainfall is expected, particularly in Dwarka, Porbandar, Jamnagar, and Rajkot, though coastal areas may see reduced intensity after July 10.
- South Gujarat: Above-normal rainfall is forecast until July 17, with a possible decrease in the second half of the month.
The monsoon’s robust start has set the stage for a wet July, with South Gujarat expected to bear the brunt of heavy showers in the coming days.