Ahmedabad: Despite India spending crores of rupees on high-tech satellites and modern forecasting technology, the Ahmedabad Meteorological Department (IMD) has once again failed to deliver an accurate weather prediction. The department had forecast only “light to moderate” rainfall for Ahmedabad, but early this morning (September 18), the city was hit by a fierce downpour that caught residents off guard.
Forecast Said “Light,” Reality Delivered Nearly 3 Inches in 5 Hours
According to IMD’s bulletins and its hour-by-hour changing nowcasts, Ahmedabad was expected to see nothing more than light drizzle or moderate rain. But the situation on the ground told a completely different story. Between 6:00 am and 1:00 pm, more than 42 areas across the city recorded an average of 2.88 inches of rainfall. Of this, a staggering 2.77 inches fell in just four hours between 6:00 am and 10:00 am flooding roads across the city.
The Nowcast Contradiction: Forecasts Out of Sync With Reality
Called it “moderate” while it was pouring, then warned of “heavy” rain after it had stopped. IMD’s own hour-by-hour bulletins have raised serious questions about its forecasting accuracy. The nowcasts issued at 1:00 am and 4:00 am predicted only “normal” rainfall for Ahmedabad. Even more strikingly, at 7:00 am when the city was already experiencing heavy downpour the nowcast stated that the next three hours would see only “moderate” rain. Then, at 10:00 am, once the rain had already paused, IMD suddenly issued a “heavy rainfall” alert.
This faulty forecasting left schoolchildren, parents, and office-goers stranded for hours as waterlogged roads brought morning traffic to a standstill.
Scientist’s Statement and Rainfall Data
According to IMD scientist Ramashray Yadav, the wet spell across the state is being driven by a low-pressure system over Saurashtra and the adjoining northeast Arabian Sea, along with an active monsoon trough. A “yellow alert” for heavy rainfall has been issued for Devbhoomi Dwarka, Jamnagar, Porbandar, Junagadh, and Rajkot, while coastal areas may see winds of 30 to 40 km/h with gusts touching 50 km/h prompting authorities to advise fishermen against venturing into the sea.
On the overall monsoon situation, Yadav added that between June 1 and September 17, Gujarat recorded an average rainfall of 24.09 inches, which is 9% below the normal figure of 26.38 inches. However, the Gujarat region itself has received 35.38 inches of rain 3% above its normal of 34.49 inches while the Saurashtra-Kutch region has recorded 15.19 inches, a shortfall of 24% compared to its normal of 19.90 inches.
Public Frustration
Residents have voiced anger over the repeated forecasting failures, noting that heavy rain tends to strike precisely when IMD predicts otherwise, leaving authorities unable to plan ahead. Critics argue that if a system costing crores of rupees cannot deliver accurate information, it is ordinary citizens who ultimately bear the consequences.