New Delhi : One of the bright spots of the global economy, India posted a stronger-than-expected 7.8% GDP growth for the first quarter of 2026-27 despite global headwinds. Experts have settled the debate over the GDP numbers. India’s Viksit Bharat 2047 vision aims to transform the country into a developed economy by the centenary of its Independence, with higher incomes, better living standards and broad-based economic development.
Economists Surjit Bhalla and Montek Singh Ahluwalia, while differing on some aspects of India’s economic performance in a recent show, arrived at broadly the same conclusion about the government’s Viksit Bharat goal. They both believe that India needs a substantially higher and sustained growth trajectory to become a developed economy by 2047. Montek Singh Ahluwalia, former deputy chairman of the Planning Commission, was more cautious in his formulation of the 2047 vision, but reached a similar conclusion.
The assessment comes even as India’s economy recorded 7.8% growth in the latest quarter, a number that triggered a political debate over the reliability of the new GDP series and revisions to earlier data. In fact, Bhalla, Ahluwalia and economist Neelkanth Mishra — who was also a part of the roundtable on GDP numbers on India Today TV — broadly rejected the claim that India’s GDP numbers had been politically manipulated. Mishra is the Executive Director at the World Bank, representing India, Bangladesh, Bhutan, and Sri Lanka.
Surjit Bhalla said the latest data had changed one part of his earlier assessment because India’s investment-to-GDP ratio had risen sharply to around 34%. Bhalla had earlier flagged that FDI in India was in the negative, meaning investments were outbound. But Bhalla said that the improvement hadn’t altered his conclusion about 2047. “We would need sustained double-digit growth, and in dollar terms, which is how developed-economy status is ultimately measured, we are not seeing the kind of growth required,” he said.
Ahluwalia similarly cautioned against reading too much into a single strong quarter. He had described the economy as more resilient than some pessimistic assessments suggested, but added, “You can’t look at these data and say, ‘I told you so’. “The fact that we are having a reasonably good average growth rate does not confirm that the ‘K-shaped phenomenon’ isn’t relevant,” Ahluwalia said. “Some parts of Bharat may be becoming Viksit, but large parts are not benefiting from it,” he added.
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