New Delhi — India has overtaken Japan to emerge as the world’s fourth-largest economy, with a gross domestic product valued at USD 4.18 trillion, according to an official government statement. The country is on track to displace Germany and secure the third position within the next 2.5 to 3 years, potentially reaching a GDP of USD 7.3 trillion by 2030.
The United States remains the top-ranked economy, followed by China in second place.
India continues to lead as the fastest-growing major economy globally, bolstered by robust quarterly performance. Real GDP expanded by 8.2 percent in the second quarter of the 2025-26 fiscal year, accelerating from 7.8 percent in the first quarter and 7.4 percent in the final quarter of the previous fiscal. This marked a six-quarter peak, demonstrating resilience against ongoing global trade challenges, with strong private consumption serving as a key driver.
The government’s review of 2025 reforms highlighted sustained momentum, noting that international organizations share optimistic outlooks. The World Bank anticipates 6.5 percent growth for India in 2026. Moody’s forecasts the country will retain its status as the fastest-growing G20 economy, with rates of 6.4 percent in 2026 and 6.5 percent in 2027.
The IMF has upgraded its estimates to 6.6 percent growth in 2025 and 6.2 percent in 2026, while the OECD projects 6.7 percent in 2025 and 6.2 percent in 2026. Additional forecasts include S&P’s expectation of 6.5 percent for the current fiscal year and 6.7 percent next, the Asian Development Bank’s revised 7.2 percent for 2025, and Fitch’s upward adjustment to 7.4 percent for FY26, citing heightened consumer demand.
India stands among the quickest-expanding major economies, well-placed to maintain this trajectory. Aiming for high middle-income status by 2047 — the centenary of independence — the nation is advancing through solid economic expansion, ongoing structural changes, and progress in social areas.
Additional indicators show controlled inflation below tolerance levels, falling unemployment, rising exports, stable financial conditions with healthy credit growth, and steady demand fueled by improving urban spending.