New Delhi: As polling for the 2025 Bihar assembly election concluded on November 11, a strong consensus emerged from the evening’s exit polls, with at least six major surveys projecting a significant victory for the ruling NDA coalition, led by the JD(U) and BJP.
Also read: 8 Exit Polls Predict Landslide NDA Victory in Bihar; Prashant Kishor’s Bid Falters
However, amid the largely uniform predictions, one news portal, Journo Mirror, presented a starkly different outcome, favouring the opposition Mahagathbandhan.
The Outlier: Journo Mirror’s Projection
In a forecast published on its Instagram handle, Journo Mirror predicted that the Mahagathbandhan (MGB) or INDIA bloc, led by the RJD and Congress, would comfortably cross the majority mark.
- Mahagathbandhan: The portal allocated 130-140 seats to the opposition alliance, well past the 122-seat requirement for a majority in the 243-strong Bihar assembly
- NDA: It projected that the incumbent NDA would lose power, securing only 100-110 seats.
- Other Parties: Journo Mirror’s analysis gave Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM 3-4 seats. Political strategist Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party (JSP) was included in the “Others” category, with a projection of 0-3 seats.
The Consensus: What Other Polls Found
In contrast to Journo Mirror, at least seven other polls indicated a clear mandate for the NDA’s return to power.
- Peoples Pulse: This survey projected 133-159 seats for the NDA, while giving the Mahagathbandhan 75-101 seats. It allocated 0-5 seats to Jan Suraaj and 2-8 seats to Others.
- People’s Insight: This poll forecast 133-148 seats for the NDA and 87-102 for the MGB. Jan Suraaj was projected to get 0-2 seats, with Others securing 3-6.
- JVC: A survey by JVC predicted a similar outcome, with the NDA winning 135-150 seats and the Mahagathbandhan 88-103. It gave Jan Suraaj 0-1 seats and Others 3-6.
Who is Journo Mirror?
Journo Mirror is identified as a primarily Hindi-language news and information service. According to an analysis by the Google Gemini AI tool, the platform has been active since at least 2021.
It typically covers contemporary Indian political and social issues, often focusing on subjects related to marginalised communities, such as Dalits and Muslims. The portal positions itself as an “alternative news source” with a focus on “social justice.”
A Note of Caution
Political observers remain cautious, recalling the 2020 Bihar assembly polls. At that time, most exit polls had incorrectly predicted a victory for the Mahagathbandhan, a result that was overturned when the final votes were counted.