Despite a significant drop in global cocoa prices since last Valentine’s Day, consumers aren’t seeing cheaper chocolate on store shelves this year and in some cases are paying more. Cocoa futures have plunged nearly 70% compared with a year ago, but retail chocolate prices in the United States continue to climb, rising about 14% between the start of January and early February compared with the same period in 2025, according to market research firm Datasembly. In Europe, the trend has been even steeper, with countries like Germany reporting price increases of nearly 19% last year.
The reasons behind this disconnect are rooted in recent market history. In 2024, cocoa prices more than doubled as dry weather and crop diseases battered harvests in West Africa, a region that provides more than 70% of the world’s cocoa. While conditions have since improved in some producing nations and output has grown in others like Ecuador, the earlier surge left manufacturers locked into costly long-term supply contracts that haven’t yet reflected the recent price decline.
Demand patterns have also shifted. Higher chocolate prices have dampened consumer appetite, prompting makers to reduce chocolate content in products or lean toward other sweet treats like gummies to maintain sales. Annual retail chocolate sales in the U.S. did show growth in 2025, but the total number of units sold actually fell as shoppers bought less overall.
Trade policies have played a part too. A 15% tariff on some cocoa imports imposed last year boosted costs in the U.S. before those levies were lifted in late 2025, though tariffs on European Union chocolates remain.
Industry experts note that even with cheaper raw cocoa, chocolate makers may be reluctant to reduce prices if consumers are still willing to pay premiums. Like fuel markets, companies often keep prices high until their older, costlier inventory is used up.
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