Diplomatic Disaster: What Does the Trump-Zelensky Fight Mean for India?
WHAT’S HAPPENING
It was meant to be a routine diplomatic sit-down at the White House a public handshake between two world leaders. Instead, it ended with sharp words, raised voices, and Ukraine’s delegation being asked to leave with their untouched lunch still on the table. Friday’s meeting between US President Donald Trump and his Ukrainian counterpart, Zelensky, started off on a friendly note. Trump even called Zelensky “a great guy.” But within minutes, the conversation turned hostile.
WHAT IT MEANS FOR DIPLOMACY WITH TRUMP
First, none of the global norms associated with the behavior of a world leader can reasonably be expected of Trump. His speech, behavior, comments, and social media posts run counter to those norms.
Second, the world is now dealing with a US President who wants, above all, to be seen as respected in front of his domestic audience. World leaders who understand that have swallowed their pride, zipped their mouths, smiled, and obliged him. This happened with Jordan’s King Abdullah II when Trump discussed his plan for Gaza. The King did not contradict the President or provoke him in front of TV crews; instead, he later issued a statement via tweet rejecting the plan after leaving the White House.
Other leaders, such as President Emmanuel Macron of France and Prime Minister Keir Starmer of the UK, have been skillful and respectful. The French President smiled and held President Trump’s hand, but he also politely corrected him about Europe’s contribution to the Ukrainian war effort.
Third, the Trump-Zelenskyy showdown has shown that each country is now on its own. Bilateral transactionalism is at its peak. The new Washington no longer respects the norms and rules of the past, and each country must look out for its own interests they can no longer depend on the US or its leadership. The reliability of the American establishment and power is no longer a given.
Fourth, the value of the classic old rule of diplomacy behind closed doors is becoming apparent. True diplomacy is about talks and dialogue within the room, not a spectacle for the cameras. This suggests that back-channel talks now have more value than public statements and posturing.
WHAT IT MEANS FOR INDIA
South Block would be heaving a sigh of relief that Prime Minister Narendra Modi was able to navigate these choppy waters during his visit to the White House last month. The contentious issues of illegal immigration and high tariffs were raised respectfully, and the Indian side managed to dodge the Trump bullet. That India came out of the White House with a target of a deal by this fall and that both sides agreed to work on lowering tariffs can be seen as a victory for both parties.
It is now even more unlikely that India will express support for either country. New Delhi has always walked a tightrope and will continue to avoid taking sides, according to officials. India will maintain its stated position: dialogue and diplomacy are the only paths forward, and solutions cannot be found on the battlefield.
On Friday, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen expressed their “support for a just and lasting peace” based on respect for international law, the principles of the UN Charter, and territorial integrity and sovereignty. Earlier this week, India abstained from voting on a draft resolution by Ukraine at the UN General Assembly calling for “de-escalation, an early cessation of hostilities, and a peaceful resolution.”
BIGGEST BENEFICIARY OF THIS FIGHT
The biggest beneficiary of the drama in the White House is Russia and President Vladimir Putin. “I think Putin couldn’t be happier,” a European diplomat said, noting that “they’re drinking vodka straight out of the bottle in the Kremlin tonight.”
This outcome is one that Moscow would welcome a break of trust and partnership between Zelenskyy and the US. Ukraine now understands that it cannot continue its fight without American support, which might mean Ukraine will eventually come back to Trump. Zelenskyy may also face pressure to hold elections, although how that could occur during a war and under martial law remains unclear. Even if someone else becomes President, that leader will have to prioritize their country’s interests over winning a public televised debate. In any case, neutral players and mediators may need to step in to bring the principal actors back to the negotiating table.