Arsenal head into the final stretch of the Premier League season as clear favourites to end a 22-year wait for the title and the math is firmly in their favour.
With eight games left, the Gunners sit top of the table on 70 points from 31 matches. Manchester City, their only realistic challengers, are nine points back on 61 from 30 games. City’s maximum possible haul is 85 points. Arsenal can reach 91 if they win every remaining fixture.
In practice, Arsenal don’t need to win them all. Sixteen points from a possible 21 seals the title regardless of what City do. That’s five wins and a draw, or some variation of it across a run of fixtures that includes Bournemouth (home), Manchester City (away), Newcastle (home), Fulham (home), West Ham (away), Burnley (home), and Crystal Palace (away).
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Most of those opponents are in the bottom half. Sixteen points is a reasonable ask.
The wildcard is the City fixture on April 19. If Arsenal lose at the Etihad and win their other six, the title could come down to the final day May 24 against Crystal Palace away. But that assumes City don’t drop points elsewhere between now and then.
If City stumble which they have been doing Arsenal could wrap it up before the season’s final weekend. How early depends entirely on how many points City shed, and whether Arsenal avoid slipping up themselves.
Mikel Arteta’s side still control their own destiny. That’s more than can be said for the 20 seasons before this one.
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