Key numbers
- Total seats: 243; majority at 122.
- Phase 1 turnout (Nov 6): 65.08%.
- Phase 2 turnout (Nov 11): 68.76%.
- Overall turnout: about 66.9%, the highest on record for Bihar.
What exit polls indicate
Most pollsters project the NDA crossing the majority mark, with the Mahagathbandhan trailing short of forming the government alone. Analysts caution that sample bias, last-mile swings, and differential turnout by region can skew modeled projections versus actual counts.
Why results could surprise
- Regional heterogeneity: Western Bihar shows strong BJP footholds, central plains tilt more RJD, and the north-east/Bhojpuri belt hinges on local contenders and caste coalitions; this mosaic often defies statewide averages.
- Seat-level arithmetic: Concentrated votes can inflate vote share without converting to seats, especially in three-way fights seen across multiple constituencies.
- Smaller parties’ impact: Entrants like AAP contesting all 243 seats, plus independents and local fronts, can split margins in tight races.
- Turnout composition: Elevated turnout can benefit different alliances across regions; who turned out and where matters more than the headline percentage.
Alliances to watch
- NDA: BJP, JD(U) and allies rely on efficient seat-sharing and disciplined transfer of votes to reach or surpass 122.
- Mahagathbandhan: RJD-led bloc is banking on anti-incumbency consolidation and maximizing conversions in close contests against the NDA’s organizational edge.
What to track on counting day
- Early postal ballots and initial rounds in swing districts (Seemanchal, Magadh, Tirhut) to see if turnout translated to seat gains.
- Strike rate of alliances in three-cornered seats where margins were thin in 2020.
- Performance of smaller parties as spoilers or kingmakers in sub-2,000 vote margin constituencies.
- Cross-over patterns: whether NDA’s strongholds hold against localized swings, and if RJD converts urban turnout into actual seat pickups.
Bottom line
Expect a long count and potential lead reversals across tight seats. If NDA’s vote transfer remains efficient across partners, it retains the advantage; if regional turnout disproportionately favored the opposition in key clusters, the Mahagathbandhan could narrow the gap or spring localized upsets.
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