India is likely to witness above-average rainfall during the 2025 monsoon season, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). On Tuesday, IMD officials stated that seasonal rainfall is projected to be 105% of the long-period average, with a model error margin of 5%.
The southwest monsoon, which usually begins over Kerala around June 1 and retreats by mid-September, is a vital period for the country’s agriculture. The expected increase in rainfall could significantly benefit the farming sector, the Ministry of Earth Sciences noted.
Most regions across the country are anticipated to receive favourable rainfall, although some areas—including Ladakh, the Northeast, and Tamil Nadu—may experience below-normal precipitation during the four-month period.
Also read: Gujarat Weather Update: Light to Moderate Rain Expected Across Multiple Districts
IMD classifies normal monsoon rainfall as between 96% and 104% of the 50-year average of 87 cm (approximately 35 inches). Rainfall exceeding this range is categorized as “above normal.”
Experts indicated that all major climate indicators, including El Nino and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), are currently neutral. These neutral conditions generally support a healthy and consistent monsoon.
El Nino is a climate pattern marked by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, often resulting in weaker monsoon rains over India. Meanwhile, the IOD is a weather event in the Indian Ocean where variations in sea surface temperatures between its western and eastern regions can influence rainfall patterns—positive IOD events typically enhance Indian monsoon rains, while negative IODs may suppress them.