Iran And US Face Off Again In Geneva: What Happens If Trump Walks Away?

Geneva : The United States and Iran are resuming intense diplomatic engagement in Geneva this week, seeking to break a prolonged deadlock over Tehran’s nuclear programme while the spectre of renewed conflict looms large. The talks, scheduled as a second round of indirect negotiations, follow earlier discussions mediated by Oman and aim to stave off escalating regional instability and avert possible military confrontation.

Iran’s top diplomat, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, arrived in Geneva ahead of the negotiations and underscored Tehran’s readiness to pursue a peaceful resolution, framing Iran’s participation as rooted in “fair ideas” rather than acquiescence to pressure. Technical consultations with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) preceded the Geneva talks, with Araghchi meeting the agency’s director to address outstanding issues related to the country’s nuclear activities and inspections.

For the United States, President Donald Trump indicated he would be involved in the process “indirectly”, reinforcing Washington’s determination to shape the outcome. Trump and U.S. envoys have consistently stressed that they seek to constrain Iran’s nuclear ambitions and prevent enrichment near weapons-grade levels demands that have been central to the broader diplomatic impasse.

However, tensions remain thick. The U.S. has bolstered its military footprint in the Middle East, including deploying a second aircraft carrier group, heightening pressure on Tehran. Meanwhile, Iran has staged military exercises in the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic oil transit route, as both sides prepare for talks that could influence not only nuclear diplomacy but wider regional security dynamics.

Past negotiation efforts, including a round in Oman in February, failed to produce a breakthrough, and the shadow of previous military action including U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear sites underlines the fragility of current talks. Much hinges on whether Iran can secure meaningful sanctions relief and assurances of respect for its interests, and whether Washington remains committed to a negotiated settlement over confrontation. 

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