India has slipped to the sixth position among the world’s largest economies, with its projected GDP for fiscal year 2026-27 estimated at $4.15 trillion, falling short of the United Kingdom’s $4.26 trillion, according to recent assessments. This shift comes even as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised India’s real GDP growth forecast for FY27 to 6.5 percent on April 14, while domestic projections indicate a solid 7.4 percent expansion in FY26.
In 2025, India’s GDP stood at approximately $3.92 trillion, just below the UK’s $4 trillion, delaying earlier expectations that the country would overtake Japan to claim the fourth spot that year. The adjustment in global rankings stems primarily from a recent government revision of the GDP base year, released in February, which lowered nominal GDP estimates from Rs 357 lakh crore to Rs 345.5 lakh crore in the new series. Using an average exchange rate of Rs 87 per dollar for FY26, India’s dollar-denominated GDP has remained below the $4 trillion threshold.
The weakening of the rupee, which depreciated by about 11 percent against the dollar in FY26, has further influenced the dollar-based valuation and contributed to the revised ranking. Gaura Sengupta, chief economist at IDFC First Bank, explained that the rank change reflects a new base year where nominal GDP is around 4 percent lower than under the previous base, combined with the currency depreciation.
Domestically, India’s economy demonstrated impressive performance, recording a compound annual growth rate of 8.56 percent from 2021 to 2025—the highest among major economies. Projections now suggest India will surpass Germany by 2031, though this timeline has been pushed back by two years compared to prior IMF estimates. Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran has noted that India is expected to comfortably cross the $4 trillion mark in 2026-27 based on recent figures, while acknowledging that relative global positions depend on various external factors.
