IMD Predicts Early Monsoon Arrival Around May 26 as Severe Heatwave Scorches North and Central India

New Delhi: The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has projected that the Southwest monsoon will arrive on the Kerala coast around May 26, nearly a week ahead of its standard June 1 onset date, as a severe heatwave continues to grip large parts of North and Central India.

The monsoon has already entered the Andaman and Nicobar Islands on May 16. After reaching Kerala, it will progress northward across the subcontinent. Maharashtra and Mumbai are expected to receive monsoon rains around June 2-5, while Delhi and most of North India are expected to see its arrival by the end of June.

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The Southwest monsoon accounts for 70% of India’s annual rainfall.

Heatwave Conditions

IMD has issued Red and Orange alerts for severe heatwave conditions across Northwest, Central, and Eastern India. Temperatures across mainland India are fluctuating between 44 and 48 degrees Celsius. Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan are recording the highest temperatures, with Delhi, Punjab, Haryana, and Himachal Pradesh also experiencing intense heat and hot dry winds from the northwest.

Rainfall Forecast

IMD’s Long Range Forecast places overall monsoon season rainfall at approximately 92% of the long-period average. Private forecaster Skymet has projected it at 94%. Both agencies attribute the below-normal rainfall outlook to the development of a strong El Niño in the equatorial Pacific Ocean between May and July.

The first half of the monsoon season, covering June and July, is expected to remain relatively stable. The primary deficit is anticipated in August and September, coinciding with the peak of El Niño.