The United States executed a large-scale military operation against Venezuela on Saturday, with President Donald Trump announcing the strike via his Truth Social platform. Trump also revealed that Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife have been apprehended and removed from the country.
“The United States of America has successfully carried out a large-scale strike against Venezuela and its leader, President Nicolas Maduro, who has been, along with his wife, captured and flown out of the Country. This operation was done in conjunction with U.S. Law Enforcement. Details to follow. …… Thank you for your attention to this matter!” Trump posted on Truth Social Saturday.
Following the military action, market analysts predict a gap-up opening for crude oil, gold and silver prices when trading resumes Monday. However, experts note that Venezuela’s economy isn’t large enough to significantly disrupt Indian equity markets, which are expected to remain relatively stable. The bull’s conviction may weaken somewhat, with strong early morning buying anticipated after Friday’s intense session unlikely to materialize.
Commodity market impact
Anuj Gupta, Director at Ya Wealth, anticipates upward movement across multiple commodities. “US attack on Venezuela is expected to trigger geopolitical tension in the region, which is expected to fuel the uncertainty. Hence, I am expecting a gap-up opening for gold, silver, copper, crude oil, gasoline, etc.”
COMEX gold closed at $4,345.50 per ounce and may climb to $4,380 per ounce when markets reopen Monday, according to Gupta. COMEX silver rates could touch $75 to $78 per ounce, while Brent Crude oil prices are projected to reach $62 to $65 per barrel. On MCX, gold may hit ₹1,40,000 per 10 grams, silver could reach ₹2,45,000 per kilogram, and Brent crude might touch ₹5,200 to ₹5,300 per barrel Monday.
Sandeep Pandey, Co-founder of Basav Capital, explained that the US-Venezuela crisis has endangered shipping routes used by Peru and Chad—the world’s largest silver exporters—for their silver shipments, creating supply concerns. Gold prices are similarly expected to rise.
Indian stock market outlook
Regarding Indian equities, Pandey stated the market should remain stable overall. “However, due to the rise in crude oil prices, we may see some downside impact on the oil stocks. However, this downside will be limited, and oil stocks are expected to recover soon”.
Five key factors driving gold prices Monday
1. Venezuela military strike
The weekend military operation has created fresh geopolitical uncertainty. Venezuela holds South America’s largest gold reserves approximately 161 metric tonnes valued near $22 billion at current prices making this conflict particularly significant for precious metals markets.
2. Crude oil price dynamics
Oil prices remained largely steady entering 2026’s first trading session, with oversupply expectations offsetting geopolitical production risks across several OPEC nations. Brent crude futures settled below $61 per barrel in light trading, while West Texas Intermediate finished above $57. Middle Eastern markets, including Dubai benchmark derivatives, weakened amid heavy selling during key Asian trading windows.
3. Gold-silver ratio positioning
After volatile trading, the gold-silver ratio climbed to approximately 60, having earlier touched 54 on Monday. Amit Goel, Chief Global Strategist at Pace 360, identifies 80 as the critical pivot point in this ratio.
“When the gold-silver ratio falls below 80, silver prices begin to enter the overbought zone. Similarly, when this ratio exceeds 80, gold prices enter the overbought zone. As the gold rate today in the international market is $4,345.50 per ounce and the silver rate today is $71.30 per ounce, the gold-silver ratio stands slightly above 60, indicating that silver rates today are in the overbought zone. One should avoid buying the white metal in the current market scenario,” Goel advised.
4. Tether’s gold accumulation
Non-state entities like Tether are increasingly driving structural gold demand, reducing downside risk during market corrections. Sugandha Sachdeva, Founder of SS-WealthStreet, noted that Tether’s gold purchases aren’t linked to its gold-backed token (XAUT) but stem from corporate profit diversification.
“Over 100 tonnes of gold held by Tether are not linked to token issuance, underscoring that gold is increasingly being viewed by corporations and technology-driven financial firms as a strategic reserve asset, much like central banks have treated it over the past decade,” Sachdeva explained.
5. Indian rupee weakness
The Indian rupee recorded its sharpest annual drop since 2022, declining nearly 5% against the US dollar in 2025 despite broader dollar weakness globally. Analysts attribute this underperformance to persistent capital outflows and trade uncertainty rather than domestic economic stress. Pressure stemmed mainly from weak foreign portfolio investor (FPI) inflows, sluggish export growth and heightened importer hedging demand.
Gold and silver entered 2026 steadily after recording their strongest annual gains since 1979, with gold surging nearly 70% in 2025. Bullion rose as much as 1.9% Friday before surrendering most gains during US trading hours, while silver retreated after earlier jumping 4%.
Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. Please consult with an investment advisor before making any investment decisions.