Nobody’s panicking yet. But the numbers are worth sitting with. The US-Iran conflict isn’t resolving, the Strait of Hormuz is still under pressure, and analysts are now quoting oil prices that range from $135 per barrel on the cautious end to $372 on the extreme end. That spread alone tells you something it means the people paid to forecast this don’t know what comes next either.
What Could Push Prices to Historic Highs
A Reuters poll of 38 analysts pegs Brent crude at roughly $89 per barrel for 2026. That’s the “things stabilize” number. It assumes the Strait reopens, some diplomatic channel works, and the conflict doesn’t metastasize. That assumption is carrying a lot right now.
The Worst-Case Numbers
Paul Krugman’s Substack post put out $372 per barrel as a “high disruption” scenario a near-16% drop in global supply from major strikes on Iranian export facilities or Red Sea shipping, hitting a market that can’t easily cut demand. The mechanics aren’t crazy, even if the number is extreme.
Jim Cramer called $250 per barrel by Q3 2026 if the war drags on. S&P Global Energy’s Dave Ernsberger gave a $200–$250 range tied to sustained Strait disruption. Macquarie’s Vikas Dwivedi and his team expect $200-plus if the conflict runs into summer. Stratas Advisors puts $190 on the table if the Strait stays shut another full month. Rystad Energy’s Janiv Shah is more conservative $135, or above $110 if conditions hold for four months.
Prices Are Already Rising
Prices are already climbing, though nothing close to worst-case yet. The working consensus sits between $100 and $190, with $200 treated as the ceiling in a prolonged conflict. The average conditional forecast across projections lands around $134–$135.
From here it comes down to three things: how long the conflict runs, whether any diplomatic opening emerges, and when the Strait gets back to normal traffic if it does.
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