Mumbai: Despite a volatile international economic landscape, the Indian economy has demonstrated remarkable resilience, with growth in the third quarter of FY26 projected to hit between 8 and 8.1 percent. According to a State Bank of India (SBI) Research report released on Tuesday, strong domestic demand and high-frequency activity indicators suggest that the nation’s growth momentum remains firmly intact.
Dr. Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Group Chief Economic Adviser at SBI, attributed this robust performance to a dual surge in rural and urban consumption. While rural demand is being propelled by healthy agricultural and non-farm activities, urban markets have seen a sustained uptick following the recent festive season, bolstered by government fiscal stimulus. These figures align with the first advance estimates, which peg India’s overall GDP growth for the current fiscal year at 7.4 percent.
A significant transition is also underway as India prepares to update its GDP base year from 2011-12 to 2022-23. The new series slated for release on February 27 will incorporate more granular data, including GST records, vehicle registrations via e-Vahan, and natural gas consumption. This methodological overhaul aims to better capture the informal sector and the expanding digital economy, potentially solidifying India’s status as the world’s fourth-largest economy.
While the global environment remains clouded by geopolitical tensions and uneven growth projected at 3.3 percent, India’s trajectory appears distinct. The latest Economic Survey estimates the nation’s potential GDP at 7 percent, with projected growth between 6.8 and 7.2 percent for FY27. As the new data series approaches, analysts remain watchful, though the underlying strength of domestic demand continues to serve as a critical buffer against external shocks.
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