Soumya Swaminathan: India Likely Underreporting Deaths Due to Extreme Heat
India is most likely undercounting heat related deaths due to a lack of strong data, but the government is now improving surveillance to minimise the impact of extreme conditions on health, former WHO chief scientist and health ministry advisor Soumya Swaminathan has stated.
In an interview with TERI’s World Sustainable Development Summit, she also stressed the urgent for better tracking, preparedness and policy interventions as the country braces for another extreme summer.When asked about the possibility of India undercounting heat-related deaths, Soumya Swaminathan, former Director General of the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR), responded, Most likely. We don’t have an accurate record of every death in the country, so we have to rely on estimates and perform calculations or modeling based on the available data. She also noted that recent scientific studies have tracked excess deaths.
She explained, Typically, the number of deaths remains relatively stable throughout the year, but if there’s a sudden spike, like we saw during COVID, that’s when we can attribute the excess deaths to specific causes. For instance, in May-June, if there’s a noticeable increase in deaths, it’s likely due to heat.
Last summer, India endured severe heat, with the India Meteorological Department reporting a record 536 heatwave days, the highest in 14 years.Official data revealed that India recorded 41,789 suspected heat stroke cases and 143 heat-related deaths during one of its hottest and longest heatwaves. Public health experts argue that the official death toll is likely an undercount, as 20 to 30 percent of heat stroke cases typically result in fatalities.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has also predicted above-normal maximum and minimum temperatures across much of the country this summer.
While the health ministry has initiated surveillance for heat-related deaths, Soumya Swaminathan warned that fatalities represent just the tip of the iceberg.
She explained, For every death, there are likely 20 people suffering from the effects of heat, such as high blood pressure, worsened cardiac conditions, heat exhaustion, or being unable to go to work.
Swaminathan highlighted the significant productivity and economic losses caused by heat, which may not result in death but still have a profound impact on families. That’s where we need to focus, ensuring people remain comfortable and productive, she added.We must, of course, minimize deaths,Swaminathan emphasized. We don’t want anyone to die from heatstroke, but it’s equally important to ensure people are in thermal comfort.” She also raised concerns about the mental health impact of extreme heat.
If there’s no relief from the heat over an extended period, we know that issues like suicides rise, psychiatric conditions worsen, and domestic violence escalates, she added.