Maharashtra has recorded below-normal rainfall during the current monsoon season, with a notable shortfall across several regions. From June to September, the state has experienced an overall deficit of around 16 percent. The shortfall is more pronounced in Marathwada, where the deficit stands at approximately 37 percent, and in Vidarbha at 24 percent. Konkan reports an 11 percent shortfall, while central Maharashtra has a relatively smaller deficit of about 5 percent. In several districts, the shortfall has reached 50 percent or more, and during August, some areas recorded deficits exceeding 70 to 80 percent.
The limited rainfall has raised concerns among farmers and residents, particularly in Marathwada and Vidarbha, where agricultural activities have been affected. Kharif crops and groundwater levels are under pressure in many locations, with reports of crops withering due to water scarcity.
Weather experts indicate that widespread rain is unlikely across the state over the next five to six days, and the chances of heavy downpours remain low. Current weather conditions are expected to persist in the near term. Any significant change would be reflected in subsequent official forecasts.
Monsoon withdrawal typically begins from Rajasthan around mid-September and from Maharashtra in October. This year, the withdrawing rains are also expected to remain below average levels.
A low-pressure system may develop over the Bay of Bengal after September 22–23. The intensity and track of this system will influence any potential rainfall in Maharashtra in the following period. At present, forecasts do not indicate widespread heavy rain for the state.
Looking ahead, intensifying El Niño conditions over the next two to three months could result in temperatures slightly higher than usual. Weaker monsoon winds, reduced humidity and clearer skies may contribute to a gradual rise in temperature, though this does not necessarily signal an immediate major heatwave. Seasonal variations in temperature are still expected.
The combination of rainfall shortfall and the approaching withdrawal phase has heightened challenges for agriculture and water resources in the affected regions.